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Will the Second Apparent Assassination Attempt on Trump Affect the Election?

President Donald Trump was an apparent target of what appears to be another assassination attempt this past weekend, only nine weeks after the first attempt to assassinate him in Pennsylvania. 

The former president was at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach on Sunday around 1:30 p.m. when Secret Service members spotted a gun pointing out of bushes while sweeping the area before Trump moved forward. 

Once the suspect was discovered, agents opened fire toward the man. Allegedly, Ryan Wesley Routh, the 58 year old suspect, was detained on a nearby highway after fleeing from the Secret Service in an SUV. Authorities have stated that Routh never fired a shot and was only 300-500 yards away from Donald Trump, putting him within range with the gun the suspect was carrying. 

Agents found his belongings in the woods, which included an AK-47-style rifle with a scope containing an unreadable serial number. Routh’s cellphone records showed that he was around the area of the golf course for about 12 hours, arriving at around 1:59 a.m.

Routh is currently being charged with possession of a firearm by a prohibited person and possession of a firearm with an obliterated serial number. 

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What might a second assassination attempt result in with the polls coming up? 

This attempt could help Trump’s prospects by encouraging Republicans to raise money for his future ad campaigns. Supporters may also direct the vitriol toward Trump’s opponents. Trump himself is even blaming the Democrats for the violence that has been waged against him, stating on social media that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are taking “politics in our Country to a whole new level of Hatred.”

Financial gain is also in the cards. Shortly after Trump’s first assassination survival in Butler County, Pennsylvania, a Trump-owned company began selling merchandise related to the attempt. Days after the traumatic incident in July, the website gettrumpsneakers.com sold “limited edition” high-tops featuring a photograph of Trump from the rally with his fist in the air. These sneakers were selling for $299 and only 5,000 pairs were available, with a bonus 10 that Trump would sign. The shoes sold out quickly, and Trump’s campaign fundraising was able to raise just under $140 million that same month.

Similarly, Trump sent out an email shortly after the second possible assassination attempt asking for donations. Within hours of the event, the former president sent potential donors an alert saying, “There were gunshots in my vicinity, but before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first: I AM SAFE AND WELL! Nothing will slow me down.” The email also contained an option to contribute to the Trump National Committee JFC, coincidently days before the last fundraising deadline before voters cast their ballots. 

Will a second assassination attempt motivate Republican donors?

This new assassination attempt could motivate donors to give money to Trump and encourage supporters to rally around him—giving him the potential to catch up to Harris in the polls. According to Reuters, following the presidential debate on Sept. 10, Harris widened her lead by another point, leaving the polls at 47% for Harris and 42% for Trump. An ABC News poll also found that 37% of people viewed Harris more favorably after tuning into the debate, while only 17% viewed Trump more favorably. 
However, there’s no one way to measure or predict what events will sway voters in one direction or the other. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said it best when he told U.S. News & World Report, “The story of 2024 so far has been a series of cataclysmic events, which would have been a political earthquake at a different period in our time, and haven’t moved much of anything.”

Photo by Frame Stock Footage/Shutterstock.com

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