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How to Weigh Risk and Reap the Rewards

If anyone knows a thing or two about managing risk, it’s Dante Disparte. Before his current role as chief strategy officer and head of global policy at Circle, creator of the USDC stablecoin, he was something of a “corporate Robin Hood” in the collections department of Bally Total Fitness, where he worked during college. He grew up in Puerto Rico and speaks Spanish and Portuguese—among other languages—and became a one-person foreign language department.

“Instead of collecting bad debts, I would advise Spanish and Portuguese speakers, and others, on how they could get out of their contracts legally,” he says, “without having to ruin their credit.”

This experience led him to form Risk Cooperative, an insurance broker and risk advisory firm, in 2014. At the time, he and his wife were a single-income household, and he was weighing the risks and rewards of turning down a lucrative job offer to start his own venture. But when he expressed concern about failure, his partner encouraged him to think about the cost of not trying. What would he regret more, failing or never having tried? Framed this way, it was an easy answer.

Today, Disparte is working to shape the future of cryptocurrency in a way that’s more accessible—and less dangerous—for people who have long been left behind by traditional investing. It ties back to his long-ago commitment to help vulnerable people move forward with better control over their finances, rather than being held back by systems that aren’t built for them.

His wisdom on risk extends beyond financial investment strategies. We asked Disparte for advice on weighing risks and embracing serendipity, even when there’s much at stake.

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Don’t conflate risk with uncertainty

It’s normal to be nervous about a risk before you make a big leap. But before you start your pros and cons list, make sure you understand what you’re looking at. Don’t confuse risk with uncertainty, Disparte says—they’re completely different things.

“There can be very, very bad [risks], make no mistake,” Disparte says. “From a leadership vantage point, I think what often gets conflated with risk is uncertainty… It can’t be measured, whereas risk can literally always be measured.

“Uncertainty is almost always bad,” he adds, “whereas risk is almost always manageable.”

Assess whether your risk is wise…

Of course, there are good risks, and there are bad risks. A good risk may have high potential for success and could change your life in powerful ways. A bad risk may be poorly measured or may have a high probability for a negative outcome that could set you back further than you can afford.

Say, for example, that you want to quit a job you hate to spend more time looking for a new one. If you have savings, connections and a clear idea of what you want, quitting could provide you with the time, mental space and motivation to get into something better, faster. But if you don’t have a clear path forward, or if you would have to take on debt to maintain your standard of living if you don’t immediately find something new, it might not be the right time to leap.

… But don’t overcalculate your risk

Sometimes, however, overplanning can be the downfall of an otherwise perfect plan. Let’s say you want to build an app to help people find new travel buddies for adventures. You’re hyperfocused on UX and getting the app up and running, and then a journalist reaches out for comment on a story about where people are looking for connection these days. You freeze: The app isn’t ready yet, and besides that, you’ve never been interviewed before, and you don’t know this writer. What if you say the wrong thing? What if they mess up the important details?

“Every article became like a mini lottery ticket for discoverability,” Disparte says. So put yourself out there. If you’re going to take the big risk, make space for the little ones, too.

“Super-intelligent, calculated risk taking is also about making serendipity possible,” Disparte says. “If you want to improve your discoverability, but you’re afraid of getting on a stage, or you’re afraid of putting anything on the internet, then you’re in trouble from the beginning.”

Get clear on the difference between a minor shortfall and actual pain

You don’t need Disparte to tell you there is no reward without risk. But think about your worst-case scenario, whatever that big, scary thing is that makes you think twice before making the leap. Is it really that bad? Will the worst possible outcome set you back, or will it just prevent you from immediately moving forward?

One of the first steps to calculating risk is to identify “how much a downside may even be described as actual pain,” Disparte says. “Are [you] prepared to suffer for the potential reward?”

When it comes to financial investing—particularly with cryptocurrency—however, he’s clear: Don’t invest in anything you don’t understand.

“The crypto industry has been dominated by really unchecked speculation,” Disparte says. “For every Bitcoin billionaire, there [are] thousands of people who lost everything they might’ve had due to fraud and all kinds of other risks.”

If you’re curious about crypto, he suggests getting a digital asset wallet from a regulated provider and building a diverse portfolio that contains a balance of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are the biggest coins and likely to have the most longevity. Memecoins, like Dogecoin, have earned windfalls for lucky investors but are the most risky. Stablecoins, like Circle’s USDC, are pegged to a specific dollar value and never increase or decrease in price.

Seek support from stakeholders early and often

Early investment can help realize your idea, but Disparte emphasizes that it’s not just about financial backing. While taking on investors can dilute your earnings, confirmed interest or support can be invaluable even without the money.

“Nothing worth doing is worth doing alone,” Disparte says. “You know the expression, ‘Misery loves company?’ Well, it turns out, if you’re gonna build a startup, it’s actually really good to bring people along for the ride.”

Of course, it’s not all pain—or hopefully not, anyway. But if you’re serious about whatever you’re aiming for, he says, you’re much more likely to achieve success if you’re able to share that journey with others.

Photo courtesy of Johnny Shryock

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